Research on illness-related absences during the COVID-19 increases

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Tue, 2020-07-28 21:45 — mike kraft

Data on diagnosed cases and deaths have been used to delineate the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Information from population employment surveys could shed additional light on the pandemic's effect on the health and behavior of the nation’s workforce.

Methods: We analyzed the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of approximately 115 000 persons that collects information on employment.¹ We classified as “out sick” respondents who reported having a job but being absent the previous week due to their “own illness/injury/medical problems.” We compared trends over the first 4 months of 2020 relative to 2019 using multivariable linear regressions adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, year, month, and a month×year interaction term. We assessed the demographic characteristics of out-sick jobholders, and compared out-sick rates in “high–” vs “nonhigh–COVID-19” states,² and states with and without laws mandating paid sick leave.³ We also assessed the number of persons out sick each month since January 1976...

Employment was stable at approximately 156 to 158 million from January 2019 to March 2020, but fell to 133.7 million in April 2020. Of jobholders, 1.1 million were out sick in January and February of both 2019 and 2020 (Figure). In 2019, the numbers decreased steadily to 0.92 million (0.58% of jobholders) in April. Trends differed in 2020, rising in March and hitting 2.02 million (1.51% of jobholders) in April, when 1.10 million more workers (an adjusted increase of 0.95% of the workforce) were out sick than in April 2019. More workers were out sick in April 2020 than in any month since January 1976, the earliest month for which such data were available....

All demographic groups experienced increased rates of sickness-related work absence (Table). However, the increments, relative to 2019, were significantly larger for immigrants (adjusted difference 1.28% vs 0.87% among nonimmigrants), workers aged 55 years or older (1.69% vs 0.71% in younger workers), and workers without college education (1.46% vs 0.41% among those with a bachelor’s degree or higher). Increments were similar in states with and without paid sick-leave laws.

Discussion

Work absence due to illness rose to record levels in mid-April 2020 coincident with the peak of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. The excess of persons out sick compared with 2019 was about 5-fold greater than the number of cases of COVID-19 diagnosed that week.⁴ Although nationwide data on the demographic characteristics of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 are not available, our findings are consonant with data from some locales indicating high illness rates among racial minorities. The inability of low-income workers to telecommute could also have contributed to the apparent disparities we observed...

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